ESPNcricinfo’s writers on the ground make their predictions for the 2023 men’s Ashes
ESPNcricinfo staff15-Jun-2023Will Bazball work against Australia’s attack?Vish Ehantharajah: Against Pat Cummins? No. Against Mitchell Starc? Yes. Against Nathan Lyon? Don’t know. Basically, it’s a bit of a lottery given the diversity of the touring attack with regards to how hittable they are. What is for certain is these six weeks will test Bazball’s stamina. Playing without fear when you’re 2-0 down and getting slated by the nonbelievers, former agnostics and part-time punters tuning in because it’s an Ashes? Let’s find out.Alex Malcolm: It definitely will work for periods within Test matches and maybe even for entire Test matches. But it’s hard to picture that style of cricket keeping Australia’s attack under the thumb for all five Tests. The England-South Africa series of 2022 is probably the best guide: Australia’s attack is similar but superior to South Africa’s and South Africa won one of those three Tests by an innings… although they still lost the series.Andrew McGlashan: I mean, does anyone know? “You haven’t done it against Australia,” has been the common view and it is their biggest challenge not least because, unlike against South Africa last year, Australia also have the batting line-up to complement their strength with the ball. It’s difficult to see Australia being skittled too many times.Matt Roller: Even if England are unlikely to score at a run a ball, like they did in Pakistan, they will still put pressure on Australia’s bowlers when circumstances allow – particularly if Stokes’ desire for good pitches comes to pass. I expect England will collapse at least once, and the series will be determined by how they respond to that.Andrew Miller: Pay attention at the back. “Bazball” is not a synonym for witless slogging, it is about taking the field with an uncluttered, fear-free mindset, with licence to find the very best version of yourself, safe in the knowledge that there will be no dressing-room recriminations for failure. It will work better than England’s pathetic efforts in Australia 18 months ago, and for that reason, cricket is already the winner.WTC in the bag, Australia have their eyes set on the Ashes•Getty ImagesWhat will be the defining battle of the series?Ehantharajah: Cameron Green against Joe Root. The former with the ball, the latter with the bat specifically, though the other way around could be fun. But Green looks the absolute business. Should he get his length right, could be the kind of bowler that does not make it on the podium for dismissals in the series, but ends up with all the big names.He had Root twice in 2021-22, and is exactly the kind of medium-fast with surprising bounce the former England captain could nick to anyone in the cordon, either via a defensive edge or a misjudged dab to third man. What makes it all the more intriguing is that Green is probably the one the hosts batters will look to target in a bid to limit the rest period for Cummins and the other frontline quicks. And Root will be one of the main proponents of that aggression.Malcolm: As silly and simple as it sounds, catches win matches. The best fielding side will win. Both sides will bowl well enough to create 20 chances. Both batting line-ups, as talented as they are, will give chances. England’s Bazballers are actively seeking to hit the ball in the air. Travis Head plays the same way. Marnus Labuschagne and Stokes are two of the luckiest cricketers on the planet. If Steven Smith or Root gives a chance, you’d better take it, or you could be dropping the urn.McGlashan: This may seem a cop out, but it’s everything versus everything. Bazball has thrown so many conventions out of the window that’s it’s difficult to know where to start. If you are forced to drill down, let’s say the battle of the two captains: Stokes and Pat Cummins. Not, perhaps, purely from runs and wickets point of view, but how they lead their sides when the going gets tough. And, crucially, whether Stokes can stay on the park for five Tests.Roller: England’s batters against Lyon. Lyon’s Ashes record – 101 wickets at 29.42 – is excellent, but India have shown on consecutive tours to Australia that he can struggle when teams come after him. England’s middle order have often targeted spinners successfully over the past 12 months and will doubtless be lining Lyon up.Miller: It’s tempting to say “England versus Hubris”, but we’re already well past that stage … look, here comes Nemesis already! Australia’s awesome attack is no doubt the biggest challenge to England’s Bazballing batters yet, but with respect to Steve Waugh’s pot-stirring comments last week, Boult and Southee, Bumrah and Shami and Rabada and Nortje weren’t exactly slouches last summer either.Stokes celebrates a direct hit in training•Getty ImagesWhat will the series scoreline be?Ehantharajah: 2-2, with Australia winning the final Test at The Oval after Stokes offers a generous carrot to bring Bazball full circle. It will probably lead to some overly-rogue sort on GB News calling for his excommunication from the game/the island/the world. And those of us who say we love it will secretly hate it too.Malcolm: Who the hell knows? It could be 3-2 England or it could be 4-1 Australia. Splitting the difference would be 3-2 Australia.McGlashan: 3-2, but no idea which way. I can’t see there being a draw unless we lose two full days to rain in a Test, and even then Stokes will try to manufacture something.Roller: This is the strongest Australia side to tour since 2005 but England have not lost a home series of three or more Tests since Kevin Pietersen texted Morne Morkel over a decade ago. I’ll go for a repeat of four years ago: 2-2, with one improbable draw.Miller: If in doubt, go for 3-2 to England. It’s probably been the default prediction scoreline for the past 20 years of home Ashes series, but this time I genuinely believe it. England are allergic to draws, so not even four days of rain can guarantee they won’t engineer (and lose) a preposterous run-chase. But, seeing as Australia haven’t won the Ashes in England for 22 years and counting, this year of all the ultra-positive years doesn’t feel like being the exception.Will Root break his century drought against Australia?•Gareth Copley/Getty ImagesWho will be each team’s leading run-scorer?Ehantharajah: Labuschagne for Australia, simply because he has looked in great form for Glamorgan and even just going by his media engagements, a cricketer who craves control of his situation seems to have a better grasp of his game. And England’s Joe Root for England.Malcolm: Smith and Root. Hopefully, there will be some outstanding performances from some younger players but they are the safe and obvious bets given their incredible records.McGlashan: Root. Class and consistency will show through here against what is a very strong Australia attack although he’ll need to be on his guard against Scott Boland who dismissed him four times in 2021-22. And for Australia, Smith. Sorry, I know it’s boring, but he looked in the groove during the World Test Championship final. Matching the 774 runs he made four years ago will be a tall order, but he will want to leave a mark in what is likely his final Ashes tour.Roller: England’s greatest strength has been their middle-order batting and in Harry Brook, they have a generational talent who will put a lean IPL behind him with a prolific series. For Australia, Smith will extend his remarkable Ashes record.Miller: Root, back in the ranks for the first Ashes since 2015, with the Compton-Miller medal winking at him, and all that prep in the Rajasthan nets to fall back on. And Smith, obviously.Scott Boland, David Warner and Pat Cummins wait for their turns at a training session•Getty ImagesWho will be each team’s leading wicket-taker?Ehantharajah: As we saw in the WTC final, Boland is the kind of bowler who will bag loads in these conditions. And he occupies an interesting place in England’s psyche. While the 2021-22 Ashes feels like a million miles away in terms of how far England have come as a group, they were particularly beguiled by Boland’s seam. It supposedly comes out of the hand dead straight – straight enough to cause a bit of confusion, before basically jagging into or away from you. That momentary perplexity is a killer margin at this level, and is unlikely to have been rectified.
Meanwhile, Ollie Robinson is probably going top England’s wicket-taking charts and showing us that life beyond Jimmy and Broady won’t be as bad as we think.Malcolm: Cummins and Stuart Broad. Cummins has been Australia’s leading wicket-taker in the last two Ashes series. He and Lyon are likely to be the only Australian bowlers to play all five Tests and Cummins will probably end up with more scalps. It’s just a hunch, but given his durability and his success against Australia’s left-handers, Broad may play the most Tests of England’s attack and be the leading wicket-taker as a result.McGlashan: Robinson for England, providing he can play at least four of the five Tests which some of the other quicks may not manage. And Cummins for Australia, partly because he’s the mostly likely to play all five games – and he’s a pretty handy operator. Although keep an eye out for Lyon if the summer continues to be dry and warm.Roller: Everything depends on fitness for England, but Robinson should last the distance and is a constant threat, especially at home. Cummins has been Australia’s top wicket-taker for the last three Ashes series, and will make it four in a row this summer.Miller: Cummins and Robinson, not least because they’ll play all five Tests.